The size comes from a heat loss calculation, not the old unit's rating
A contractor works out furnace size by measuring the house. Square footage, window area, insulation, ceiling height, how many exterior walls each room has. All of that gets run together into a heat loss number, the amount of heat the house sheds on the coldest expected night. The furnace gets matched to that number. Going by the nameplate on the old unit, or guessing based on its age, skips the parts of the house that actually decide how much heat it needs.







