What the cold does to a heat pump here
Your winters decide this, so start there. The overnight low in Garfield County averages 16°F across December, January and February, and it drops to freezing or below on about 190 nights a year, over half the nights in the ten months your heat runs. That matters because a standard heat pump starts losing ground before it even gets to 16°F. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Your average winter night is below both marks, and so is every single one of those 190 freezing nights.
This doesn't mean a heat pump can't heat your house. It means it needs help doing it on most winter nights here, not just the rare cold snap. Furnaces don't have this problem. A gas furnace makes the same heat at 0°F as it does at 40°F, because burning gas doesn't care what the air outside is doing. That's why the cards above call a furnace's heat strong and steady in hard cold. It's not a marketing line here, it's what the temperature numbers require.
There's a real version of a heat pump built for this. The ENERGY STAR Cold Climate designation requires a heat pump to still produce 1.75 units of heat for every unit of electricity at 5°F, and to hold onto at least 70 percent of its warm-weather capacity at that temperature, checked by outside testing. A field test of prototype cold-climate heat pumps in occupied homes backs this up: backup heat covered only a small share of the heating load between 0°F and 35°F, and the system ran on backup alone only rarely, even below 0°F. The federal-minimum heat pump priced in the running-cost band above isn't that machine. If a heat pump is on the table for your house, the cold-climate version is the one built for your nights, not the baseline model.











