Why winter here decides this
Your winter low averages 9°F, and that is the number this choice turns on. A standard heat pump starts losing its rated output below 40°F, and below about 35°F it usually needs backup heat to keep up. Nine degrees is well past both marks. So is almost every cold night you get here.
Freezing or colder happens about 220 nights a year, over half the nights the heat runs at all. On every one of those nights, a standard heat pump is already working below the point where it puts out its full rating. About 30 nights a year drop to 0°F or below. That is not the rare, extreme case for a winter here. It is a month's worth of nights, most years.
This does not rule out a heat pump. It means the heat pump has to be the right kind, with real backup behind it. A unit built to the federal minimum will lean on that backup heat often this time of year. A cold-climate heat pump is built for this: to carry the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate label, it has to deliver at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F, and hold onto 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that same temperature, verified by a third party, not just claimed by the manufacturer. Field tests of cold-climate models back this up: backup heat covered only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F.
A furnace does not have this problem. Its output does not fall off as it gets colder outside. Whatever it is rated for, it delivers, on the coldest night of the year the same as any other.











