Cold is the whole question here
Heat runs about seven months a year in Prowers County, October through April. Cooling runs about four, June through September. Whatever goes into this house will spend most of its life heating it, not cooling it.
The overnight low averages 19°F across December, January and February. That is below both marks that matter for a heat pump. Below 40°F outside, a standard heat pump puts out less than its rated capacity. Below about 35°F, it often needs backup heat to cover the rest. An average winter night here is past both marks already, before you get to the coldest ones.
Cold nights are not the exception here, they are most of the season. About 160 nights a year fall at or below freezing. Nights that reach 0°F or below are about 5 a year, a small part of those 160. The real question is not whether the house sees a hard freeze a few nights a year. It is what heats the house on the other 155 nights in the 20s and teens.
A standard heat pump is not built for that stretch. Its output falls off through exactly the range this county sits in most of the winter. A furnace does not have this problem. It is sized for cold and its output does not drop as the temperature does.
A heat pump built to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate standard is a different machine. To carry that label it has to make at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F, and hold onto at least 70 percent of its 47°F capacity at that same temperature, checked by outside testing. In a two-winter field test of these cold-climate models in occupied homes, backup heat covered only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. That is the heat pump that can do this county's winter. A standard one is not.











