Cold is the whole question here
Winters here settle the question before cost does. The overnight low averages 9°F across December, January and February, and that's not a cold snap, that's the season. About 230 nights a year drop to freezing or below, better than half the nights the heat runs. A standard heat pump starts losing ground before it even gets that cold. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it usually needs backup heat to keep up. Your average winter night here sits at 9°F, well past both of those marks, and every single one of those 230 freezing nights is past them too.
That doesn't rule out a heat pump. It rules out a standard one running alone. A unit built to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate spec is tested to still make 1.75 units of heat for every unit of electricity it uses at 5°F, and to hold onto most of its capacity at that temperature. Field tests back this up: in occupied homes running prototype cold-climate heat pumps over two winters, backup heat covered only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the units rarely leaned on backup alone even above 0°F. So the real choice in Park County isn't heat pump against furnace in the abstract. It's a cold-climate heat pump against a furnace, because anything less is fighting the thermometer here most of the winter.











