What winter here does to a heat pump
Your furnace or heat pump runs about eight months a year here, October through May, and the cold is real cold. The overnight low averages 19°F across December, January and February, and it drops to freezing or below on about 155 nights a year, over half the nights the heat is running at all. That matters because a standard heat pump has two marks against it in weather like this. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Denver's average winter night is under both marks, and every single one of those 155 freezing nights is too.
This is not the same as saying a heat pump will leave you cold. A heat pump built to carry the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate label has to prove it can make real heat at 5°F, at least 1.75 units of heat for every unit of electricity, while holding onto most of its capacity from 47°F. Field tests of cold-climate heat pumps in real homes back this up: backup heat covered only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the unit ran on backup alone only rarely, even below 0°F. The nights that cold are few here anyway, about 5 a year. A standard heat pump will struggle on your coldest nights. A cold-climate one, sized and installed for this, usually will not.











