What winter here does to a heat pump
The heat runs about eight months a year in this county, October through May. That's the season a heat pump has to get through, and this county gives it real cold to do it in. The overnight low averages 20°F across December, January and February. That's below the point where a standard heat pump starts to struggle.
Two different things happen to a standard heat pump in the cold, and both happen here. Below 40°F it stops putting out as much heat as its rating says. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to make up the difference. At 20°F, the average winter night here, a standard heat pump is past both marks. And it isn't a few nights a year. About 150 nights a year here drop to freezing or below, over half the nights across the eight months the heat runs.
That doesn't mean a heat pump can't heat your house. Cold climate models exist for this. One built to the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate mark has to keep making real heat, not just running, down to 5°F, and still hold onto most of its rated capacity at that temperature. That's a different machine than the federal-minimum unit priced in the running-cost comparison above. If you're pricing a heat pump for this county, that rating is what to ask for, not the minimum.
The nights that reach 0°F or below are rare here, about 5 a year. That's the extreme case, not the normal one. The normal case is 20°F, and a cold climate heat pump is built to work there. Field testing on prototype cold climate heat pumps found backup heat covered only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the units rarely ran on backup alone even at 0°F. That's the case for a cold climate unit specifically. A standard one, the kind priced at the federal minimum, is a different bet in this climate.











