Your winter nights are the whole question
Archuleta County winters decide this. The overnight low averages 13°F across December, January and February, and it falls to freezing or below on about 220 nights a year, out of roughly 305 nights in the ten months the heat runs here. That's over half the heating season spent below freezing.
A standard heat pump has two marks against it in that kind of cold. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Your average winter low of 13°F is below both marks, and every single one of those 220 freezing nights is too. This isn't a machine that dips below its comfort zone a few nights a year here. It's below both marks most of the winter.
That doesn't mean a heat pump can't heat your house. It means the version built to the federal minimum, the one priced in the running-cost comparison above, is working against the cold on more nights than not. A unit carrying the ENERGY STAR Cold Climate mark is built for this differently: to qualify, it has to still make 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity at 5°F and hold onto 70 percent of its warm-weather capacity at that temperature, verified by outside testing. Field tests of prototype cold-climate heat pumps found backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup alone was rare even above 0°F. The county sees 0°F or below about 25 nights a year, under a quarter of the freezing nights. So the real question isn't heat pump or furnace in the abstract. It's whether the heat pump you're pricing is built for 13°F nights or just rated for them.











