Can a heat pump keep up on a 16 degree night
Your winters here are the whole question. Heat runs about eight months a year in Arapahoe County, October through May, and the overnight low averages 16°F across December, January and February. A standard heat pump starts losing ground before it even gets that cold. Below 40°F it puts out less heat than its rating says, and below about 35°F it usually needs backup heat to make up the difference. Sixteen degrees is past both marks, and so is every night that drops to freezing or below. That happens about 165 nights a year here, out of roughly 245 nights in the eight months the heat runs. That is most of the season, not a cold snap.
A gas furnace does not have that problem. It burns gas to make heat, and the outdoor temperature does not change how much heat it makes. The furnace puts out the same heat it is rated for whether it is 30 degrees outside or well below freezing.
A small part of the winter is more extreme still. About 6 nights a year here fall to 0°F or below. That is where a standard heat pump is weakest and leans hardest on backup heat. It is a small slice of the season, but it is the part where the two machines differ most.
If you go with a heat pump here, the one built for this is the kind rated for cold climates. To earn that rating, a heat pump has to keep making real heat at 5°F, at least 1.75 units of heat per unit of electricity, and hold on to 70 percent of its warm weather output even at that temperature, verified by outside testing rather than taken on faith. A standard heat pump is not built to do that. A cold climate one is. Field testing of prototype cold climate heat pumps over two winters found backup heat covering only a small share of the heat needed between 0°F and 35°F, and running on backup heat alone was rare even above 0°F.











