What the cold here does to a heat pump
Winters here settle the question before cost does. The average overnight low across December, January and February is 12°F, and a standard heat pump starts falling short of its rated heat output once it's below 40°F outside. Below about 35°F it often needs backup heat to keep up. Both marks sit well above what this county sees on a normal winter night.
Of the roughly 365 nights a year this county runs heat, about 205 drop to freezing or below, over half of them. Every one of those nights is already past both the 40°F and 35°F marks. About 12 nights a year reach 0°F, deep into the range where a standard heat pump is putting out only a fraction of its rated capacity. A furnace does not work this way. It burns gas to make heat, and the flame puts out the same heat on any of those nights.
None of this rules out a heat pump. The ones built and tested for cold climates are a different machine from the federal-minimum unit the running-cost band is based on, built to keep most of their capacity down at 5°F and verified for it by independent testing. In a two-winter study of these cold-climate models in occupied homes, backup heat carried only a small share of the load between 0°F and 35°F, and the homes rarely ran on backup alone even above 0°F. If a heat pump is going into a house here, this is the kind it should be.











